3 Angels Extension Candidates
As Spring Training arrives next week, so too does extension season.
Throughout baseball, the vast majority of extensions that take place do so in these next two months before the regular season begins.
Today, we’re going to look at three extension candidates on the Angels. Two who have yet to reach arbitration and one who is in his final year of arbitration.
Logan O’Hoppe
Logan O’Hoppe enters his age 25 season this year, just 4 seasons away from free agency. The closer players get to free agency, the less likely they are to sign extensions and the pricier they’ll be. That is why now is the time to strike a deal with O’Hoppe. He is still far enough away from free agency that there’d likely still be a willingness to sacrifice future earnings in exchange for financial security.
If the Angels want to make him a key face of the franchise, they could approach him with a deal in similar length to Buster Posey (9 years at age 25) and Will Smith (10 years at age 28). Such a deal would enable them to lock up, in the words of one teammate, their Captain.
Zach Neto
Zach Neto enters his age 24 season this year and is five years away from free agency. With Neto coming off shoulder surgery, the possibility exists that the Angels may be a bit apprehensive to begin extensions talks. However, one could argue this is the perfect time to present Neto with an extension and provide him with financial security he is not yet guaranteed.
Given Neto’s youth, there are two paths extension talks could take. They could explore a decade-plus megadeal that locks Neto up well into his 30s, such as the ones Bobby Witt Jr (11 years at age 23) and Troy Tulowitzki (10 years at age 26) once signed. Or, they could explore a 7 to 8 year deal where Neto trades some potential future earnings into financial security, while the Angels get an extra couple years of team control at the back-end. Examples of the latter include Elvis Andrus (8 years at age 26), Ezequiel Tovar (7 years at age 22), and Andrelton Simmons (7 years at age 24).
Luis Rengifo
Luis Rengifo is entering his final year of arbitration at age 28, which means it’s entirely possible he is committed to getting to free agency and won’t negotiate an extension. But if he is willing to negotiate, the Angels have a prime opportunity to act now before his arbitration hearing with the team occurs in the next couple weeks. The two sides filed arbitration figures just $150,000 apart. As a file-and-trial team, the Angels aren’t going to bridge that gap with a pure one-year deal. But, perhaps, they could work out some sort of extension to not only bridge that gap in 2025 but lock-up someone who could be part of the next great Angels team.
As we’ve seen this offseason, the free agent infield market for second and third basemen in particular is quite bare. If Rengifo got to free agency, the Angels likely would have to once again dig through a relatively barren free agent infield market next offseason. So why not just sign Rengifo now and avoid that mess? Sure, Rengifo has his warts— below average defensive metrics, xwOBAs that don’t quite support his actual wOBA, and an IL stint or two each year. But, he’s still a quality player that has had a 110 wRC+ the last three seasons and is only 28. Some potential comparable deals at the high-end would be Jeff McNeil (4/$50M), Jake Cronenworth (7/$80M), and Chris Taylor (4/$60M). At the low end, Jurickson Profar (3/$21M) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2/$15M) could be potential comps. Perhaps a 3-5 year deal between $40M to $50M could work.
Besides gaining additional team control, a key advantage of locking up pre-arb players like O’Hoppe and Neto is to gain some financial certainty and flexibility long-term. This is especially important for an Angels team that believes they are building a core that will lead them back to winning ways in the future.
Financial flexibility can be gained in two ways.
Given that O’Hoppe and Neto are going to be making less in their pre-arbitration and arbitration years than they will in their free agent years, the luxury tax hit (which is based on annual average value) will be reduced since the total dollar amount can be spread out over a longer period of years.
If the Angels wanted to get creative, they could frontload potential extensions to give them more payroll flexibility in future years. This would mean they pay out more money in the next couple years, when they are still trying to emerge as contenders, rather than in future years when they expect to be in the middle of their contention window.
As we sit here today, I would prioritize extension talks in this order: 1) O’Hoppe, 2) Neto, 3) Rengifo.